The Way The Strange Campaign Broke the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still