Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.