Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Plan Is Seen As a Benefit to Vladimir Putin

Initially, the former US president gave the impression to take a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, he finally introduced considerable penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would in practice benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative effectively weaken that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred swath of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its military have been failed to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that represent a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he later opt to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its military from their present large number personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The plan would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also prohibit member states from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. However different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not